The Robo Paul Retrospective

Now the World Cup is over, VPS looks back over the predictions of Robo Paul…

Last night, Germany raised the World Cup as champions of the 2014 tournament. At VPS, we weren’t surprised. Not only because Germany had knocked the socks and shin pads off their opponents all the way through the competition, but because our match-predicting octopus Robo Paul said it would be so.

For the past month, Robo Paul has been predicting the outcomes of every world cup match. He’s not been quite as accurate as the original Paul. Paul number one’s success rate was 85 percent, while our own Robo’s predictions were correct 44 per cent of the time. Despite this, he’s been a great mascot for the VPS office.

So how will Robo Paul be spending his retirement?

“I think for the most part he is going to hang out in our office and entertain us,” explains Robo Paul creator Cody Erekson. “Right now he presents us with a random Chuck Norris fact every 15 minutes. There is also a web interface with which any of us devs here can change the color and light patterns of his eyes and move him around – he’s even mobile-friendly! – and make him “say” anything we want. And as a neat little touch, I gave him the ability to play music yesterday.”

After a brief holiday from fortune telling, Paul will go into training for the next big sporting event. After all, there are only two years until the UEFA Euros and Paul has got some work to do.

“I have a box full of sensors I hadn’t had a chance to finish installing,” explains Cody. “There are motion sensors, light sensors, proximity sensors and sound sensors. I want him to be able to react when people enter the room, turn the lights on and off, walk around and talk.  It’s just a matter of time.”

Cody will also be doing a bit of work over the current months on the algorithm that Robo Paul used to predict the outcome of the World Cup Matches.

“This same prediction algorithm has had very high success rates with past usage, so it has come as a bit of a surprise to see how often Robo Paul picked the incorrect team for these World Cup matches,” reflects Cody. “However, as I have studied the differences between how soccer (football) is scored and games such as basketball and football are scored, it has become clear why this is. Soccer is a rather low-scoring game, whereas those others tend to have much higher scores on average, especially basketball. Many of the metrics used in RP’s prediction algorithm are based upon percentages, which are used in a direct comparison to the anticipated scores. Applying a ‘golden ratio’ method retroactively proved to show much more consistent results with the actual outcomes. Additionally, soccer allows the concept of a draw game and many other games do not. Until half-way through the tournament, it was impossible for Robo Paul to predict a draw, therefore completely skewing his overall accuracy rating.”

To see Robo Paul in action even though the World Cup is over, visit his YouTube site.