Big Ideas: We All Know About Them, But They Haven’t Quite Made It
Where are you Virtual Reality? We are awaiting Bitcoin…
The nature of technology is that not every good idea catches on. Part of the fun and excitement of coming up with a new invention, startup or idea is wondering how and when it will achieve mass adoption. To assume that it will based simply on the merits of one’s idea alone is a mistake that far too many entrepreneurs and inventors have made.
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One of the biggest assets of any inventor on the road to mass adoption is the press. Articles, blogs and news coverage help drive interest and hype around a given idea, and can often provide a path to the economy of scale necessary for mass usership. As an idea grows and takes shape, the right kind of press can help it “cross the chasm”, an idea coined by author Geoffrey Moore in relation to new technologies. Moore’s idea states that “there is a chasm between the early adopters of the product (the technology enthusiasts and visionaries) and the early majority (the pragmatists). Moore believes visionaries and pragmatists have very different expectations, and he attempts to explore those differences and suggest techniques to successfully cross the ‘chasm.’”
But what happens when ample news coverage brings an idea or invention to the brink of the “chasm” before it’s ready to actually be there? In the modern internet era, with so many blogs and influencers driving hype around certain products, it’s easy to think that the early adopters are far more numerous in number than they actually are. This can create the perception that a product is ready for mass usership and is on the brink of changing the world, when in reality it’s still only feasible for a niche kind of user.
But Wait, Where Is It?
In recent times we’ve seen a lot of hype around three ideas that we’ve been told, over and over, are on the cusp of changing the world. However, these ideas—3D printing, Bitcoin and Virtual Reality—still seem to be in their early adoption phase despite a barrage of press and coverage that suggests the contrary. Here’s a look at the status of each of these ideas and the likelihood that they’ll ever cross the chasm that Geoffrey Moore wrote about.
3D Printing
It would be unfair to say that 3D printing is not in use at all. There are plenty of specialist firms and creators who use these printers on a regular basis for their work and for creating prototypes of certain products. But the frequent prognostications that, in just a few short years, nearly everyone would have a 3D printer in their home have not come to fruition. We have seen much celebrated companies like Solidoodle shut down due to lack of funding and failure to manufacture consumer 3D printers overseas. One of the major problems, according to analysis in TechCrunch, is that “cheap and beginner-friendly don’t generally go together when it comes to hardware. 3D printers aren’t incredibly complicated, but they have lots of moving parts that like to wear out over time and break. Cutting costs can exacerbate this.”
VR
Virtual reality is very much in its “early adopter” phase. Mostly used for gaming, entertainment or specialized training programs, there have been plenty of indicators that it will soon reach the mainstream, notably Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg’s interest in the technology. But the interest of one tech giant is not necessarily enough to heave user VR across the chasm. Inventors will have to stake out a value proposition and delivery method that is superior and cheaper than the existing ways we consume media.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin, the alternative to banks, has captured the favor of everyone from libertarians to finance geeks. But as an idea that is essentially akin to creating trust via a mechanism called the blockchain, it has a long way to go before convincing average consumers that it is as secure as a brick and mortar bank. A reclusive leader and internal power struggles have not helped bolster the company’s reputation, meaning that it could potentially just remain a footnote in history rather than a new way of doing things.